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Trend Forecasting

Banking on TradeShark’s Neural Network Forecasts

Aerospace engineer Ted Warnock is a real rocket scientist whose career includes applying neural network technology to tethered satellites so he knows it’s not easy to set up neural networks to find solutions. But he calls TradeShark’s 80% accuracy rate over 40 markets he tested “extremely impressive.” And you don’t have to understand the neural network process to take advantage of TradeShark’s trend forecasts.

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Banking on TradeShark’s Neural Network Forecasts

Video
Aerospace engineer Ted Warnock is a real rocket scientist whose career includes applying neural network technology to tethered satellites so he knows it’s not easy to set up neural networks to find...

Aerospace engineer Ted Warnock is a real rocket scientist whose career includes applying neural network technology to tethered satellites so he knows it’s not easy to set up neural networks to find solutions. But he calls TradeShark’s 80% accuracy rate over 40 markets he tested “extremely impressive.” And you don’t have to understand the neural network process to take advantage of TradeShark’s trend forecasts.

Getting an Edge with Trend Forecasting

Video
From his early career days as a reporter on trading floors, Jim Wyckoff realizes how intertwined markets are in today’s global economy and how intermarket analysis can be used for trend forecasting...
From his early career days as a reporter on trading floors, Jim Wyckoff realizes how intertwined markets are in today’s global economy and how intermarket analysis can be used for trend forecasting instead of trend following. With TradeShark’s predictive indicators providing these forecasts, traders can identify a price trend early, one of the keys to trading success. See more at http://www.TradeShark.com

Stop Falling Prey to the Lagging Technical Indicators

Building on his groundbreaking research on neural networks and intermarket analysis, Mendelsohn’s second patent pertains to an invention related to methods and systems for designing and calculating predictive technical analysis indicators that actually forecast market trends in advance.

Mendelsohn’s research accounted for the lagging effect of moving averages by inventing proprietary computer processes which address these limitations and overcome the lag effect through the development of methods, systems, and devices that combine both actual and predicted data derived from the application of neural networks to intermarket data found to be most influential on each specific primary market.

In one aspect of the invention, an algorithm is used to integrate the predicted data with actual technical indicator values to create a hybrid technical indicator that overcomes the lag effect that was previously thought to be an inherent aspect of using technical indicators.

Leading and Lagging Indicators Demystified

Below is a simplistic example of how a traditional lagging technical indicator, moving averages, is transformed into a predictive leading indicator.

6-day Moving Average (MA) = 6 Days Actual Data / 6

A traditional 6-day moving average (MA) of closing prices takes the past six days of closing prices, adds them up, and then divides by six.

All of the data used to calculate the moving average is actual and has already happened. Therefore, the predictiveness of this indicator is negligible since it is based solely on past data.

By comparison, TradeShark’s Predicted Moving Average (PMA) tools combine actual data and forecasted data and then takes an average of those values. Here is an example of a PMA.

6-day Predicted Moving Average (PMA) = 4 Days Actual Data + 2 Days Predicted Data / 6

A 6-day PMA of closing prices takes the past four days of closes, adds two days of predicted data, and then divides that total by six.

Six days are still averaged, but day-five and day-six are predicted values for two days in the future.

The important key here is that the two days of predicted data derive from our proprietary computer processes that apply neural networks to intermarket analysis,

This creates a highly accurate differential between the actual, lagging moving average value and the leading PMA indicator value. Whenever the PMA value is greater or less than the actual moving average value, this means that the market is expected to move up or down from its current level.

The anatomy of a perfect trade.

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